HME providers said they expect sleep revenue to grow by 8 percent in the next 12 months, according to the Q2 2010 HME Sleep Survey, conducted by Wells Fargo Securities, in cooperation with HME Business and Respiratory & Sleep Management magazines.
The results, the latest in a series of semi-annual surveys, were up from 6 percent reported in the Q4 2009 survey. Providers report growing at 7 percent over the past 12 months, which was up from 5 percent in the prior survey.
Download the Q2 2010 HME Sleep Survey.
In general, providers expect the growth in patient volume growth in the U.S. sleep market to improve as the negative impact of the economy moderates and home testing begins to expand. Based on the results of the survey, Wells Fargo analysts boosted their U.S. sleep market growth forecast to a range of 10 percent to 12 percent annually, up from 8 percent to 12 percent.
Nearly 200 readers participated in the bi-annual survey, released April 9. And for the first time since surveying began in 2006, respondents indicate that sleep market growth improved compared with the prior survey.
Respondents link better expectations to two factors: the economy and home testing. In the next 12 months, respondents expect the economy to slow growth by 0.9 percent, down from 1.3 percent in the prior survey. Providers said they predict home testing to increase growth by 1.7 percent, up from 1.4 percent in the prior survey.
The survey also measured providers expectations regarding the impact of the CMS’s re-bid of Round One of its national competitive bidding program. On average, respondents said they expect competitive bidding to drive Medicare reimbursement down by 19.4 percent, which is worse than the 17.8 percent decline expected in the prior survey. Moreover, analysts predict deeper reimbursement declines of 30 percent or more
Mask usage patterns were also studied, as an increasing focus is being placed on supply business.
“As oxygen reimbursement has been squeezed, HMEs have increasingly focused on sleep therapy as a growth opportunity and have implemented programs to follow-up with patients about masks and other disposable CPAP products (filters, tubing, etc.) in order to increase replacement rates,” the survey reads.
Respondents report that patients used an average of 2.3 masks per year in the past 12 months. They expect this to increase to 2.4 masks per year in the next 12 months. Wells Fargo analysts estimate that the increase could add 4 percent to U.S. mask growth and more than 2 percent to U.S. sleep market growth.
Increased use of compliance tracking technology also appears likely in the coming 12 months, according to the survey. HME company respondents used compliance tracking in 71 percent of their patients in the past 12 months, up from 67 percent in the prior survey. They expect this to increase to 77 percent of their patients in the next 12 months, up from 74 percent in the prior survey.
