In the 1970s, futurist Alvin Toffler wrote, “Future Shock,” a treatise on how technological innovation might one day outpace individuals’ and society’s ability to incorporate those innovations into daily life.
To summarize Toffler’s theory, the notion was that throughout history, people were fortunate if they saw a single major technological innovation. You were lucky if you saw developments such as the bow and arrow or the telescope. As generations progressed, one innovation would beget another, and the pace of innovation increased. Eventually, individuals could expect to witness a major technological innovation, such as the windmill or firearm. More recently, people could count on seeing more than one innovation in their lives, such as the concurrence of rail travel and the telegraph.
Today, the pace of technological change is rapid. In my life, I have seen multiple moon landings, home computers, artificial hearts, reusable spacecraft, animal cloning, scientists map the human genome, spacecraft leave our solar system, the Internet and wireless technology connect the world, the Large Hadron Collider explore subatomic space, and surgical implants give hearing to the deaf and vision (albeit limited vision) to the blind.
And I’m sure I’m skipping many major developments. In fact, it’s hard to keep up with this change. And that’s exactly Toffler’s point. As a post-industrial society develops into a post-industrial society — and beyond — at what point does it stop being able to manage massive, disruptive change?
I look at the HME industry and wonder the same thing. Let’s consider the Baby Boom generation. I’ll start by trotting out some well-worn statistics: At 76 million people, the Baby Boom is retiring at the rate of 8,000 people a day. But, the Boomers are not the same retirees the industry saw with the Greatest Generation and the Silent Generation.
Baby Boom retirees continue to lead more active lifestyles than their predecessors, and this means that their HME needs differ. They might not need mobility equipment or home access upgrades as fast as HMEs experienced with older generations. Instead of needing compression garments or orthopedic braces for their day-to-day routine, Boomers might need higher tech options to help them continue pursuing athletic endeavors. Moreover, those active lifestyles are pushing the Baby Boom’s needs for more therapeutic HME further out into their future. This is impacting the products and services that providers offer, and how HME businesses market those offerings, as well.
Well, let’s fast-forward a few generations. We know my cohort, Generation X, is active, and we know that the Millennials lead even healthier lives. So let’s examine my kids’ generation, the so-called iGeneration or 2Ks. For all the claims about “kids these days” being glued to their screens, my kids and their peers lead ridiculously active lifestyles. For example, my 13-year-old just ran her first marathon — at 26.2 miles she pounded out more than twice her age in mileage. Most adults can’t claim that accomplishment.
Yes, I’ll admit that as a proud parent, I am totally abusing this column to crow about my girl, but I’m also making a point: My daughter wasn’t alone. There were dozens of kids her age that finished the same race. Assuming those healthy lifestyle habits stick, how will this age group impact HME? We’ll see them running instead of smoking, so they’ll likely have reduced oxygen needs. But with the 2Ks engaged in more endurance sports, we’ll likely see more joint surgeries, as well. Also they’re a much smaller demographic than Millennials, so how will that impact volume? Will providers be able to pivot for the ebbs and flows in demand?
These are the kinds of massive, disruptive changes providers will have to prepare for as they deal with the “future shock” that subsequent generations will bring to the industry. I hope providers can keep up with all these kids — because I could sure use the help!
