The number of Americans without health insurance is expected to decline by almost half, from 45 million in 2012 to 23 million by 2023, but the pace of health spending growth is looking to continue a trend of sub-4 percent growth according to a new report from CMS.
The report, “National Health Expenditure Projections, 2013-23,” attributed the uptick in the number of insured patients to the coverage expansions associated with the Affordable Care Act.
“Health care costs are increasing at a slower rate thanks to the Affordable Care Act,” said CMS Administrator Marilyn Tavenner. “The dramatic decrease in the number of uninsured Americans is a win for our country and its economy in the future.”
The report projects health spending during 2013 to grow by 3.6 percent, which would mark the fifth consecutive year of spending growth under 4 percent. National health expenditures are projected to grow at an average rate of 5.7 percent for 2013 through 2023, about 1.1 percentage points faster than the expected average annual growth rate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), according to the data from the CMS Office of the Actuary.
The report also points to average annual growth of 6 percent per year from 2015 through 2023, largely as a result of a combination of factors: continued implementation of the Affordable Care Act along with faster projected economic growth, and the aging of the population. While 6 percent is faster than recent years, it is still off from the period of 1990-2008, which saw average growth of 7.2 percent and health spending growth that was 2 percent faster than GDP.
Other Findings:
- For 2014, the health spending growth rate is expected to be 5.6 percent, as 9 million Americans are projected to gain health insurance coverage, predominantly through Medicaid or the Health Insurance Marketplaces.
- Out-of-pocket spending is projected to decline by 0.2 percent.
- 2023, health expenditures financed by federal, state, and local governments are projected to account for 48 percent of national health spending. In 2012, such expenditures constituted 44 percent of national health spending.